Even though the country was subjected to the holocaust, the power of the generals has been weakened and turned blanch. Therefore, as a last survival and exit, the junta generals even ruthlessly plan to put for sale of the country.
The military plans to restart the Irrawaddy Confluence Hydropower Project, which has been forgotten even by the people of Myanmar. It is stated in the May 17 Junta Gazette that the Steering Group for the Irrawaddy Confluence Hydropower Project has been formed. This Steering Group has to negotiate with the Chinese government regarding the hydropower project and discuss and make decisions with the stakeholders involved in the project. In other words, the military regime, which is losing heavily, is planning to bribe China with the hydropower project for prolonging their terms.
I think that the immediate help that the military wants to get from China for bribery with the hydropower project is related to the ceasefire of the Kachin offensive war. The Kachin war that started on March 7 has not only captured around 100 military camps including 7 battalions and headquarters, a city in northern Shan and 5 cities in Kachin state, but now they are going to capture the town of Waimaw.
Waimaw town is separated only by the Irrawaddy River from Myitkyina, the capital city of Kachin State. Therefore, if the Kachin Independence Army- KIA joint forces were able to capture only Waimaw, the capital Myitkyina would also be on the verge of being captured. Therefore, the heads of the generals who command fighting in Nay Pyi Taw’s bullet-proof glass room are already on fire. Since they are unable to compete with guns, they may have offered to restart the Irrawaddy hydropower project to China in the hope that the Kachin offensive would stop under Chinese pressure.
In addition, China can have long-term expectations of the military junta by pursuing the Irrawaddy hydropower project. The military regime expects in the long term that the Chinese government support the sham election that the military regime wants to hold and certainly stands up to a government that wants to be by the military. If that happens, it will be easy to start railway project that will connect Kunming and Kyauk Phyu, which China wants. Moreover, it is possible that the military regime started to dream Irrawaddy hydropower project that China once hoped for free passage of Chinese ships from the Irrawaddy River to the Myanmar Sea.
Another thing that must be considered is whether China, which wants to exploit the opportunity while the military regime is in crisis, highlights reviving the Myitsone hydropower project, which has been unanimously opposed by the people of Myanmar.
For whatever reason, the ruthless plan to restart the Myitsone hydropower project, which was strongly opposed by the people of Myanmar, is a challenge to the entire people of Myanmar and proof that Min Aung Hlaing dares to do anything to prolong their ruling term.
However, the military is losing not only the Kachin war front but also the Rakhine war front. In Chin State, the joint forces of the Chin Resistance Army captured the town of Tonzang, and more than 40 soldiers were captured alive on May 23. In Karenni State, there is no news that the military has been defeated. The Aung Zeya column, which was heavily supported by the military junta, could not cross the Dawna Range even after more than 40 days, and the pile of corpses caused the Nay Pyi Taw generals overwrought crazy.
The Nay Pyi Taw generals have nothing politically, and in military warfare, but they continue to adhere to the principle of not negotiating with anyone. Until now, China’s position on the Myanmar issue is only ASEAN’s five-point consensus, which is contrary to the outlined five principles of the military regime. Suppose China doesn’t care about the prestige of a big country and supports the military because of Myitsone hydropower project’s incentive. In that case, there may be unwanted difficulties for the Spring Revolution, but China will only have to pressure some ethnic armed organizations.
However, it is an alarm that the people of Myanmar need to closely watch the military junta’s ruthless plan and China’s subsequent steps on the military regime’s incentive.