By Sayar Ngaat / MPA
Meteorologists have predicted that the remnants of the cyclone and associated whirlwinds that could potentially enter Myanmar are weakening. As a result, it is unlikely that there will be heavy rainfall and severe windstorms.
Meteorologist U Win Naing, wrote on his social media that Cyclone Soulik, which developed in the South China Sea, has gradually weakened and is now passing over Thailand whirlwind.
U Win Naing stated that the cyclone passed through Vietnam on 19 September and has since transitioned into a inland low-pressure system, continuing to move towards southern Laos and northern Thailand.
“The remnants of the cyclone, now a low-pressure system, are still moving towards southern Laos and northern Thailand. We are continuing to monitor data from weather stations in those regions. As the weak winds pass through southern Myanmar, the amount of rainfall they might bring will not be significant, and the wind speed is also expected to remain low,” U Win Naing wrote on his social media.
Furthermore, meteorologists have estimated that the remnants of the cyclone, along with whirlwinds, could enter Myanmar between the towns of Hpapun and Kamarmaung in Karen State on the evening of 21 September. The system is expected to move through Kayin State, Mon State, southeastern Bago Region, northern Yangon Region, Ayeyarwady Region, and Man Aung Island in Rakhine State before reaching the central eastern part of the Bay of Bengal by 22 September.
“Although the wind strength is weakening, it is moving closer to southern Myanmar. The remnants of the cyclone could still bring localized heavy rainfall due to the moisture carried by the clouds,” U Win Naing wrote on his social media.
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Therefore, U Win Naing has warned residents of Kayin State, Mon State, Bago Region, Yangon Region, and Ayeyarwady Region—particularly in areas such as Yangon, Hmawbi, Hlegu, Taikkyi, and Htantabin—to not underestimate the potential for rainfall.
“Flooding is already present in several areas, and although some places have seen the water recede, there are still areas where the water has not yet subsided. Hearing about the incoming cyclone has caused concerns, but it is a relief that it is not expected to be severe,” a resident of Yangon said.
Rescue workers have advised that preparations should be made for the possibility of further flooding due to the potential arrival of additional cyclone remnants.
“There were cases where people suffered during the first flood because they were unprepared, thinking it would not be serious. This time, even if it is not severe, people should prepare by gathering medicines and food supplies in advance,” said a rescue worker from Kalaw in southern Shan State.
Since the second week of September, continuous heavy rains have been brought to various parts of Myanmar by the intensity of Typhoon Rai, resulting in widespread flooding. According to a report released by the State Administration Council (SAC) on 18 September, 268 people have died, and 88 remain missing across 56 townships in regions of Naypyidaw, Bago, Magway, Mandalay, Ayeyarwady and states of Kayah(Karenni), Karen, Mon, and Shan.
Additionally, the floods have submerged over 150,000 homes and destroyed more than 2,000 houses. SAC’s data also stated that 117 government buildings, over 1,000 schools, and nearly 400 religious structures were damaged.
The most severe flooding in Myanmar’s recent history occurred in July 2015, when 12 of the country’s 14 states and regions were affected. Although over 100 deaths were reported during that disaster, the death toll was significantly lower than the current situation.
This year’s floods are the deadliest natural disaster in Myanmar since Cyclone Nargis, which struck in May 2008, resulting in a high death toll.
Flooding in Myanmar typically occurs during the rainy season, which lasts from June to October, with July and August being the peak months. However, severe flooding is now continuing into September.
