The question of whether the regime is imminently planning a nominal change has risen upon the announcement that Acting President Myint Swe, appointed by Min Aung Hlaing, is in terrible affliction.
This question has been ignited by the regime’s announcement on July 18, 2024, revealing the current deteriorating condition of Min Aung Hlaing-appointed Acting President Myit Swe, who has been ailing since early 2023 and received medical treatment in Singapore in April 2024.
The role of acting president symbolizes that the junta has not seized power unconditionally and the constitution remains stable. Despite the public’s disbelief in the military claiming of not seizing power imposing no threats on the regime itself, the acting president must assemble the National Defense and Security Council (NDSC) to extend the emergency state every six months and the tenure of military rule, disguising that the regime is stipulated by the constitution. Nevertheless, during the impending end of the current extension, the fifth, the regime had to disclose the Acting President’s terrible health condition since he can no longer fulfill his role even as a figurehead in the facade to convene the National Defense and Security Council meetings.
The authority to convene the NDSC meeting lies in the hand of the Min Aung Hlaing Appointed Acting President Myint Swe as mandated by the constitution. It is the NDSC meeting that can prolong the regime’s tenure by extending six months. Now, the so-called acting president’s health in decline and the recent dismissal of Henry Van Thio, who had served as the vice president under the military till April 22 due to health conditions, have ascertained the final chapter of NDSC meetings according to the constitution.
However, for Min Aung Hlaing, who has blatantly led the coup, prevaricating that the military maintains power and stability under the guise of constitutional legitimacy, neither the NDSC is defunct nor the six months extension of the military council is an arduous task. Min Aung Hlaing can interpret and manipulate the constitution as he wishes, meaning the absence of an acting president poses no significant issue.
Therefore, it is unnecessary to speculate about how the military council will proceed at the end of July. Nor is there any need to question whether the actions of the perpetrators who committed the coup align with the constitution.
Furthermore, there are also reports indicating that China has been asking Thein Sein to urge Min Aung Hlaing to resign, followed by the rumors of forming an interim government and holding an election.
However, although the impossibility of forming an interim government cannot be stated assertively, it is certain that the genuine power transfer or actual relinquishment of power by Min Aung Hlaing is highly unlikely. This means that even if an interim government is formed, it would either be a facade or a puppet where Min Aung Hlaing controls power at its fullest.
Min Aung Hlaing who faces significant internal and external pressures due to several war crimes, is an inexcusable criminal that every citizen cannot tolerate. Moreover, with record high mounting military losses, the internal agony blazed among the military officers has been uplifted.
It is impossible to take a step back for Min Aung Hlaing who has been burdened and encircled by such external and internal pressures. Thus, it would be unwise to expect a real change or genuine power transition under the current condition as if hoping for a bloodthirsty wounded tiger to spare his prey.
The ongoing struggle for democracy and resistance against the military junta must continue. Mandalay has overlooked the accelerated tidal waves of revolution which will imminently gain immense momentum across the country.
Translator – Z
